Why Facebook is Fading Away, and No One's Ready to Replace It

August 9th, 2024 Written By Aman Singh, Edited by ChatGPT

Image Created by Aman Singh using WIX AI on 09-12-2024

Facebook is dying: Here are two reasons why nobody’s replaced it yet.

Facebook is Dying, But Here’s Why No One Has Replaced It Yet Each time one new social site emerges—Diaspora, Ello, Path, MeWe, Minds, Vero, and so on, there is a discussion about this being the ultimate Facebook killer. Facebook is Dying, But Here’s Why No One Has Replaced It Yet Each time one new social site emerges—Diaspora, Ello, Path, MeWe, Minds, Vero, and so on, there is a discussion about this being the ultimate Facebook killer. Facebook is Dying, But Here’s Why No One Has Replaced It Yet

Each time one new social site emerges—Diaspora, Ello, Path, MeWe, Minds, Vero, and so on, there is a discussion about this being the ultimate Facebook killer. But guess what? The mass exodus we keep hearing of? It never actually happens.

Of course, upstarts like Snapchat and TikTok captured a ton of younger folks by presenting experiences completely unlike anything else—temporarily vanishing messages and short, breezy videos. Despite Facebook’s attempts to replicate some of those features, let’s be honest – those features were not Facebook.

Facebook’s core has stayed remarkably simple for 16 years: you put up something, which could be text or pictures and your friends who personally know you reply to it. They contribute, they express applause, they express their opinion. And I’ve gotta admit. I like it. Sometimes I don’t want to but stuff goes I do.

I like it because I have developed a personal interest in people I have met over a period of time. I like to stay connected and to be frank, the funny part between friends is a personal favorite. While—and this is a big while—I do not like the business that houses Facebook. And, like a lot of people, I have foolishly pinned my hopes on each of the numerous “Facebook killers.” So far, however, none of them has been able to overthrow the incumbent.

So, why? Why does every new platform fall flat? The two main reason for this are:

Reason 1: The First Mile Problem: People Can’t Switch Fast Enough

But Just friends are important in a social network, then where are my friends? Simple as that.

Facebook also enjoyed the luxury of gradual expansion – which started with single isolated and isolated communities (how many of you remember that it was initially designed for college students only?) That is something new platforms cannot really afford.

Well if we are all supposed to quit Facebook and go over to some new site then we need to know that most of the people in my list will also be there. Still, nearly all “Facebook killers” have had some sort of bottleneck. Either there is a waitlist or there is a long registration list that can even cause some confusion (have you ever tried to set up your own server?).

What happens? You post something and nothing comes out of it. Crickets. And after a week or two of that, most users are off to the next platform, where friends see what was posted and respond.

Reason 2: The Core Experience Isn’t the Same

Even when we do manage to get a decent number of friends to sign up in the first week or so, we quickly realize that the experience just isn’t the same.

There are missing features or things are clunky. Want to respond to a friend’s post with a meme? Oops, no image comments yet. Trying to tag a friend? Nope, can’t do that either. Hoping to post something all your friends will see? Sorry, you’ll need to post it on every server they’re on.

Sure, it’s impossible to launch a platform with every feature Facebook has developed over nearly two decades. But there’s a certain core experience people expect. If a new platform can’t offer that, people leave.

The Bigger Problems Behind the Failures

Having spent over 14 years working on software teams, none of these issues surprise me. They’re the natural outcome of a few broader tech industry problems:

1. The “Lean Startup” Mindset

In Silicon Valley, “lean startup” is practically a religion. It’s the idea that you start with a minimum viable product (MVP)—a stripped-down version with only a few features—and test it with a small user base before deciding what to build next.

But here’s the thing: Facebook’s features are already being used by billions of people. They don’t need testing. The new platform just needs to work, right out of the gate. Sure, that sounds crazy to software folks, but it’s how non-software products work. Imagine buying a half-built car and waiting for the wheels to be added later!

2. The Drive for Innovation

Startup founders love making new things, not copying what’s already been done. I get it. No one wants to reinvent the wheel. But in this case, we already know what works. Changing things up too much just makes it harder for people to switch.

Save the cool new features for later, after millions of people have moved over.

3. Scaling Costs

This one is tough. It’s expensive and complicated to build something that can handle millions of users right off the bat. But if you’re trying to replace Facebook, your “lifeboat” needs to be big enough to hold everyone, or it’s not going to work. There’s no way around it—it’s a necessary cost.

4. Ideological Purity

Most people working on Facebook alternatives are, understandably, critical of Facebook. They want to build platforms that are open-source, decentralized, customizable, and censorship-resistant.

Those are great goals, but focusing too much on them can make it harder to recreate the simple, intuitive experience people expect. If only techies were able to use the platform; it’s not a Facebook killer—it’s just GitHub.

The Business Model Problem

Another hurdle: how do you pay for it? Facebook killer attempts usually fall into one of three categories:

VC-backed, user-first, monetisation-later: If you go down this path, you’re not dying Facebook—you're just becoming it.

Charge users: This is a form of entry barrier to some and slows growth. It just has to grow quickly to get that feeling of realism in a social network.

Volunteer-run, open-source projects: Unfortunately, this is idealistic, and in practice the setup often leads to the emergence of complex and technologically charged interfaces.

How To Create A Competitor To Facebook

• If I were to offer advice to anyone trying to create the next big social network, it would be this:

  
  

• Forget all you know about lean startup. Do not start the advertising campaign before the product or service that is being marketed is still under construction.

  
  

• Don’t innovate until tens of millions of people have jumped ship. For now, make it familiar.

  
  

• Invest in scaling. Users should become members as soon as they are invited to a community. No wait time, no tricks to play with patients.

  
  

• Build it for the masses. Otherwise, keep it simple so that non-technical persons can operate the gadget to the letter, no matter the sacrifice of some principles in the process.

  
  

• It should be a nonprofit and owned by the community. Not anything noble has to be motivated by the sales figure or the shape of your wallet.

Conclusion

Facebook might be killing itself before anyone else gets the chance. The company has announced plans to phase out the newsfeed in favor of becoming more like TikTok, and people are leaving in droves. Meta itself seems more interested in the metaverse than keeping Facebook alive.

While part of me is happy to see it go, I’ll admit, I already miss seeing posts and comments from friends who’ve deleted their accounts. It feels like Facebook is just a couple of years away from being a ghost town. And my dance moves aren’t good enough for TikTok.

So who’s going to step up and make this happen? It feels like the perfect time for a new social network, one built by the people, for the people.

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Sources:

• Facebook is dying, discussed in Micah Daigle article, "Facebook is dying. Here are two reasons why nobody’s replaced it yet" July 27, 2022.